Turner Downs Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KRAH 260814

National Weather Service Raleigh NC
414 AM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019

High pressure will extend down across the eastern seaboard into
central North Carolina through Tuesday morning. Another trough
of low pressure and cold front will approach from the west


As of 335 AM Monday...

Surface high pressure is currently centered across New England
this morning with widespread mid and high clouds across the
region. An organized area of low pressure near Bermuda will
allow a perturbation in the low level flow to head east later
this morning. The NAM has the perturbation in the form of a weak
closed low at 925 MB while the GFS and ECMWF show an inverted
trough. In association with this wave will be an increase in low
level moisture. Low level saturation looks thin here with the
NAM depicting saturation between 925 and 850 MB. There is brief
deeper saturation across the northeastern zones and with the
approach of the inverted trough have introduced slight chance/
chance PoPs across the northeastern zones. High temperatures
today will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s, or below
normal for this time of year.

Tonight, an embedded shortwave in a longwave trough axis will
rotate east across Illinois. The wave will bring increased mid-
level saturation to the region and the next chance of light
rain. The chance of precipitation will likely enter the area
late tonight/ early Tuesday morning.


As of 400 AM Monday...

Areas of low stratus will have likely enveloped much of cntl NC,
particularly the Piedmont, by Tue morning. Additionally, a band of
mid lvl moisture and cloudiness, one accompanying a trough axis and
multiple embedded shortwave perturbations over the MS Valley this
morning, will be in the process of overspreading cntl NC early Tue.
The combination of this multi-layered cloudiness, and related cloudy
or mostly so conditions, will yield another cooler than average day.
Some light measurable rain or sprinkles will also likely accompany
the mid level moist axis/saturation through early afternoon, with
amounts less than a tenth of an inch.

Another round of stratus will be possible over the ne Piedmont and
nrn Coastal Plain late Tue night-Wed morning, on the cool side of a
retreating warm front that will manifest as much more seasonal
temperatures Wed.


As of 410 AM Monday...

A fair of cold fronts and associated foci for showers and storms,
Wed aft-night and Sun, respectively, will bookend an otherwise dry
and seasonably warm medium range forecast.


As of 200 AM Monday...

All TAF sites are currently VFR as surface high pressure remains
anchored over the Northeast. The main question in the immediate
time frame is the possibility of low level stratus formation.
Confidence is low on stratus development though as widespread
mid and upper level clouds have blanketed the TAF sites. Any
stratus that does form will likely be MVFR as low level dry air
remains prevalent in forecast soundings. Monday morning TAF
sites will likely go VFR quickly with light northeast flow in

Tuesday morning another shortwave will approach from the west
bringing a chance of rain and another round of stratus. -Haines

Looking beyond 06z Tue, pockets of sub-VFR fog are possible
09z- 12z Tue morning. An approaching trough from the west will
bring a return to rain chances and sub-VFR conditions Tue
afternoon through Wed night, followed by a return to mostly dry
VFR conditions behind a cold front for Thu/Fri. -GIH




NEAR TERM...Haines

NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion